World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2024 Report

Context

∙ The International Labour Organisation (ILO) has released the World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2024 report.

Major Findings

∙ Joblessness and the jobs gap have both fallen below pre-pandemic levels but global unemployment will rise in 2024.

∙ The Economic Recovery: The macroeconomic environment deteriorated significantly over 2023.

ο Ongoing geopolitical tensions as well as persistent and broadening inflation triggered frequent and aggressive moves by central banks.

ο Monetary authorities in advanced and emerging economies implemented the fastest increase in interest rates since the 1980s, with significant global repercussions.

ο Economic Slowdown: China, Türkiye and Brazil slowed down considerably, causing adverse impact on global industrial activity, investment and trade.

∙ Despite the economic slowdown, global growth in 2023 was modestly higher than anticipated, and labour markets showed surprising resilience.

ο Unemployment Rate: The global unemployment rate in 2023 was 5.1%, a modest improvement from 2022.

∙ The labour market participation rates had largely also recovered from their pandemic lows.

∙ Although the imbalances eased somewhat in 2023, concerns are rising that these labour market imbalances are structural, rather than cyclical, in nature.

ο Real wages declined in the majority of G20 countries as wage increases failed to keep pace with inflation.

∙ In 2023, the numbers of workers living in extreme poverty – earning less than US$2.15 per day per person in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms – grew by about one million globally.

∙ Only China, the Russian Federation and Mexico enjoyed positive real wage growth in 2023.

∙ Real wage growth in India and Türkiye was also positive.

Suggestions As per the Report

∙ In fast-ageing countries, policymakers need to support the participation of groups with weak labour market attachment, notably youth, women and older workers.

∙ Investment and skills policies need to raise productivity and potential growth and facilitate more productive use of technological progress.

∙ Improvements in sectors and occupations with low pay and difficult working conditions may motivate workers who left to come back.

∙ Ensuring that internationally mobile workers get matched to adequate jobs could alleviate some of the shortages.

∙ None of the structural headwinds facing labour market adjustment is likely to disappear over the short term, which makes it important that governments and social partners engage in supplemental efforts to address these challenges.